Over the last year the $A has fallen from around $US1.05 to around $US0.89 – a fall of 15%. In fact the $A is down nearly 20% from its 2011 high. The drivers of the slump have been a combination of lower commodity prices; increasing evidence that Australia is not competitive internationally; a deterioration in […]
Download PDF copy The past week has seen renewed concerns about the emerging world reflecting a combination of political problems in several countries including Turkey and the Ukraine, a currency devaluation in Argentina and ongoing concerns about Chinese growth. Such concerns also reflect the impact of the Fed slowing its monetary stimulus at a time […]
Download PDF copy Watch video Since the height of the Eurozone public debt crisis in September/October 2011, global shares are up 58% and Australian shares are up 37%. After such strong gains an obvious issue is whether shares have got ahead of themselves, leaving them vulnerable to a fall. This note looks at the risks. […]
Download PDF copy 2013 turned out to be a very good year for investors in well-diversified portfolios as the threats of the last few years receded and global growth prospects improved. The US did not have a fiscal crisis, the Eurozone continued to stabilise, Japan recovered, Chinese growth stabilised and Australia saw signs that low […]
Download PDF copy In what was perhaps the most anticipated event this year the US Federal Reserve has announced it will reduce the pace of its third quantitative easing (QE3) program by $US10bn a month. The Fed has been foreshadowing a “tapering” since May 22nd so it’s a surprise to no one. This note looks […]
Watch Investment Implication video Download PDF copy 2013 – another good year for investors 2013 was notable for what did not happen: the US did not go off the fiscal cliff or default on its debt and the much feared inflation lift off failed to materialise; the euro did not fall apart despite a […]
Download PDF copy Ever since major mining investment projects, such as Olympic Dam, started to be cancelled over a year ago and it became clear the mining investment boom was coming to an end, much uncertainty has surrounded the outlook for the Australian economy. This was not helped by a mediocre initial response to interest […]
Download PDF copy Ever since the global economy started to "recover" from the global financial crisis in 2009 a constant concern has been that all the money printing by central banks in the US, Europe and Japan will result in sharply higher inflation in developed countries. This has not happened. In fact over the last […]
Download PDF copy For twenty five years or so my core focus at work has been on the allocation of assets – shares, bonds, property, cash, Australian, global, etc – across multi asset portfolios. Some might say that’s a job that naturally flows from being an economist with a macro (ie big picture) focus. But […]
Download PDF copy It seems that every 6 -12 months the China perma bears roll out their worries again. At the core of such concerns are a bunch of structural issues: that China’s investment driven growth model is unsustainable, that its housing sector is overheated, that it has lost competitiveness and most significantly that it […]
